Is America on the Verge of Another Civil War?

The 20 Million Die-Hard Trump Supporters Who Could Start a Second Civil War

Photo by mana5280 on Unsplash

War is the continuation of politics by other means, Carl von Clausewitz said. The same holds true for civil war.

A recent Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service poll found that voters believe the US is almost three-quarters of the way to the “edge of civil war.” More than a third of US voters even think it is likely the United States will experience civil war sometime in the next five years.

Now, I never thought I’d seriously entertain the question I’m about to ask, but given that we are fast approaching what both the left and right have dubbed “the most important election in US history,” the outcome of which will likely not be accepted by the losing part of the country:

How likely is it that the United States will plunge into civil war in the next five months?

Of course, revolution—of which civil war is essentially a by-product—is a measure of last resort, the collective act of a group of people so desperate for change they are willing to do whatever it takes to bring it about. There are very few revolutions and civil wars in prosperous nations with thriving democracies.